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链路首页链路财经目前收录 币种 : 4908 交易所 : 310钱包 : 17 24H 交易量 : $8,497,624,175 总市值 : $167,600,143,800
2019
01/14
00:07
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  • Sharing-guest

    Dr. Jeffrey Wernick is a Ph.D. in economics and finance from the University of Chicago, an early participant in Bitcoin, and an independent investor. Jeffery has over 40 years of investment experience and has been involved in Uber and Airbnb investments. Today, Dr.Jeffery Wernick's investment focus also extends to the sharing economy, biomedicine, and blockchain technology.

    Host

    Francis Ng.

    Co-founder, Waterway Asia Ltd. 

    GM, MMM Ltd.

    Managing Director Hong Kong, Wearable IOT World

    Various Executive roles in Motorola, Acer, Jolla

    Francis is very experienced in international tech business, especially in the IOT and mobile internet industry. He worked in various consulting and execution projects, helped  various tech companies in innovative product development. A key person in Jolla and Acer, leading the China BD teams. Ran a BU in Motorola globally which is successfully built mobile content services with 18 carrier/customers across the global. Strong R&D management background.


      Sharing Starts! 


    Francis:Jeffrey, you started buying bitcoins early in 2009. Thru the years, we have seen bitcoin’s value has gone up the roof, and dived back to earth, so to speak recently.  What is your assessment on the current state of the BTC industry as a whole?


    Jeffrey:I do not refer to BTC as an industry and I am not obsessed regarding price. Obviously if BTC is only benchmarked relative to its high water mark. It is significantly below that price. But most forget BTC opened 2017 at 1000. In 2001/2. Amazon was about 98% of its all time high up to that date. So if you are looking for quick speculative trading profits. Obviously BTC has been disappointing recently. But I have always insisted that people not buy BTC unless they have a 5 year investment horizon and understand the possibility that all the investment could be lost


    There have been some positive developments in Layer 2 technology. Advances in privacy protocols for BTC. I have never looked at bitcoin as a speculative asset but monetary freedom. Similar to my holdings in gold


    Francis:Talking about gold, BTC is said to be the “digital gold” on the crypto world, as the equivalencies of gold in the currency world. Given the recent price drop to a level which is close or even below the cost of mining, do you think BTC is still the digital gold?


    Jeffrey:I do not believe in fiat money. Nor do I believe in fractional reserve banking plus fiat money. Which is very fragile and has been supported by extreme and excessive leverage distorting the entire economy and exacerbating inequality.

    I am not concerned regarding the price of bitcoin relative to mining costs. CPU mining is very cheap. So is GPU mining. Hash rate is not bad now.


    There is no indications of crisis except for those who invested predicated upon assumptions of huge price increases. Malinvestment. 


    Janelle:What is hash rate?


    Jeffrey:Hash rate is the speed at which a compute is completing an operation in the Bitcoin code. A higher hash rate is better when mining as it increases the opportunity of finding the next block and receiving the reward. 


    Much new equipment is becoming available. Innovation continues. Too many only focus on bad news and lose perspectiveI have previously described bitcoin as similar to a call option on money. People are not sure whether its adoption will grow enough to be considered money or just be a failed experiment. Unlike gold which has a long history.


    For that reason. Everyone should expect much higher volatility. Stability will only occur through broad adoption. Currently. It represents a bet on adoption. No one complained of volatility when in 2017 bitcoin went from 1000 to almost 20000. 2017 was more volatile than 2018.


    Francis:In terms of prospective, many said the crypto bear market helped to remove the speculators and only those “true believers” are staying. As such, the current value of BTC the true value. What is your view on this?


    Jeffrey:I do not think that only “true believers” remain. There are still many quant traders. And the exchanges themselves are trading. I also do not believe it is a bear market. In my opinion. Most alt coins. Utility tokens. Are still overvalued. The shitcoin bubble burst. Almost all will go to 0. Bitcoin could still move lower. And if it does. I will buy more.


    Francis:Haha, I think I will too. Talk about the shitcoin bubble burst, what is your view of STO as oppose to what ICO would do to (both positive and negative) to BTC, and the blockchain/crypto field? 


    Jeffrey: In my opinion. Bitcoin is hard money. Monetary freedom. Has the best attributes. Blockchain has been overhyped. Utility tokens are a lie. They never had any utility and were never even promoted for their utility. The ICO issued utility tokens as regulatory arbitrage to support massive pump and dump schemes where only insiders made money at the expense of others.


    The token design was very flawed. If they were truly issued for their utility there would have been no urgency to list. And pay so much for listing. It was a game to speculate on listing with a good story. Buying at big discounts. And being the first to exit.


    The truth machine using trustless technology in an ecosystem that was a complete lie. Very ironic. That is why I called them shitcoins.

    STO has potential. But not if it is only thought of as a different mechanism for monetization. I view tokenization as a way of re-expressing how value is distributed and allocated both inside and outside the firm. Enhancing price discovery. Production of more information through market transactions. Innovation in incentive mechanisms. And innovation in governance structures.  A paradigm shift.


    In the 20th century. The work that began with Einstein. The concept of reality changed dramatically.  xpressed not only in physics but in art. Like the work of Picasso in cubism. A new perception regarding the expression of space, time and light. We had a revolution in both art and physics.  I believe we need the same in finance and economics.


    Francis: You have invested in Uber, and Airbnb. Which are so called “shared economy”. Blockchain technology enables the sharing of resources in a distributed way and rewards are paid in the form of token which can be openly traded in exchanges. However, China prohibited the token trading part and embrace only the blockchain technology, and in the US, token is becoming a security product. What is your opinion on this regard?


    Jeffrey: Neither Uber nor Airbnb is sharing economy. I believe those are terms of marketing and propaganda. Value is not being shared. I do not disbelieve in blockchain. Distributed ledger technology has its value. I am a strong advocate of tokenization. No decentralization without tokenization. And I do not like private chains.


    I believe we need to consider a world where value is created outside the boundary of the firm. Governance looks very different. Value distribution rewards not just capital but other attributes to the value creation process. And, like bitcoin, no need for any controlling authority over the ledger. People do not trust private ledgers. 


    Francis: As an early buyer of BTC, 2019 is your 10th anniversary for bitcoin investment. What do you have to suggest different people (Beginner, investors, project teams, policy maker, etc.) for 2019?


    Jeffrey: If you start a project. Do not worry about token price. Do not look to list. Avoid investors who pressure you to list. Find investors who share your vision and understand that patience is required. Believe in yourself. But never stop questioning. Never stop doubting. But do not let doubt paralyze you. An investor who wants you to list quickly is not an investor but speculator. Avoid speculators in your capital structure. They will not make money for you. Only themselves. And they will corrupt you.


     Q&A 


    Janelle: What is layer 2 technology? Is this only use in BTC?


    Jeffrey: It is off chain technology for bitcoin. For use with bitcoin. Like the lightning network for payments. Also privacy protocols. 


    竹风:I also curious about the investors attitude in 2019 in US, I mean the institution investors for  blockchain startups. Are they still big interests in investing or start take steps back , move to AI IOT or whatever others.


    Jeffrey: During bear markets in the capital markets. The investing industry gets more conservative. Expected return on VC type investment slows down because exits are less likely. I do not think anyone is funding whitepapers anymore. And tokens lost credibility. So investors want equity. Not tokens.


    Janelle: That’s why People look into STO, but still no one knows How STO going, include SEC and projects, right?


    Jeffrey: People use STO like they use the words utility tokens. The know the definition but do not understand its meaning. And the SEC has not provided any constructive guidance.


    Janelle: What do you expect in 2019 blockchain industry?


    Jeffrey: Many projects going to 0. Many projects looking to figure out how to give money back without liability to themselves for wasting so much money. There is a proposal in the USA. Token Taxonomy Act. Proposal to remove crypto from the SEC and set up a separate regulatory regime. This is very important. If no significant regulatory reform. Blockchain will only be developed by private firms as private chains and with them retaining IP.

     

    蒋嘉之:which means we need a completely new SEC (a tokenzied SEC)? Any inherent governance design flaws in current SEC (and US securities law/regulations) that are NOT compatible with the future?


    Jeffrey:Yes. We need a tokenized SEC.

    Incompatible with the future. Decentralization is impossible within the existing regulatory framework. 




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